The Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-6, 2-4 in ACC) head south to Laborious Rock Stadium to face the Miami Hurricanes (9-1, 5-1 in ACC) on Saturday, November twenty third at midday on ESPN.
Wake has cut up their rivalry video games towards NC State and UNC this season beating the Wolfpack by 4 however shedding to the Tar Heels by seven. Miami is 8-3 all-time towards Wake Forest and driving a seven recreation win streak courting again to 1969, grooovy.
The Doppler
SP+
The ‘Canes are nonetheless the greatest offense within the nation in relation to third down conversions. Miami is changing 55% of their cash down makes an attempt. Wake is ninetieth in FBS solely changing on 36% of their third downs.
One knowledge level to control is that WF is twenty eighth in 4th down conversions hitting on 65% of their makes an attempt whereas Miami is tenth with a 73% success charge on 4th down.
In relation to opponent third downs Miami is thirty fifth in FBS, successful the cash down 35% of the time. Wake’s protection is 98th on third down, permitting nearly a 44% conversion charge.
The Dekes are 107th in turnover margin per recreation with -0.6 per contest. Miami is forty eighth with +0.2 per recreation.
Miami is 123rd within the nation with 68.9 penalty yards per recreation, whereas Wake is seventy fifth with 51.4 yards from flags. Anticipate a sloppy recreation in relation to penalties on Saturday.
The Wake kicker is a stable 15-of-18 on discipline targets this season and hasn’t missed a PAT. They do have a punt return for a landing which we all know might harm Miami, however they aren’t harmful on kick off returns.
The Movie
The movie we’re going to make use of is Cal’s 46-36 win over Wake Forest from November eighth. Cal jumped out to a 29-14 lead and gained the center quarters 26-14 as nicely. I like to make use of a shared opponent and Cal additionally jumped out to an enormous lead on Miami earlier than the 25-point comeback and Cam Ward’s Heisman Trophy marketing campaign started.
The Dekes have been scoring 27.7 factors per recreation (71st of 134 in FBS) and permitting 32.5 (114th of 134 in FBS). Will they break that pattern like they did towards Cal and put up huge numbers towards the Lance Guidry protection? Let’s discover out.
Photograph by Carmen Mandato/Getty Photographs
The third and fourth down conversions went in favor of Wake. Cal transformed 5-of-14 third downs and went 0-for-1 on 4th. Wake Forest completed 5-of-15 on third down however 3-for-3 on 4th down. Miami should personal third and 4th right down to deal with Wake.
Whereas Wake gained the conversions, they misplaced the turnover margin 4:1 towards Cal. Wake additionally gained the penalty yardage margin with solely 15-yards of flags whereas WF had 83-yards off of penalties.
Cal gained the kicking battle making 4-of-4 discipline targets and 4-of-4 PAT’s, whereas Wake missed their FG try. Cal scored on a Wake Forest fumbled kick return (above) as nicely.
WF Offense
QB Hank Bachmeier has had a “meh” season behind middle for WF. He was knocked out of the sport towards UNC and backup Michael Kern did have practically double the yards per try however threw two picks within the loss.
Towards Cal, Bachmeier threw two touchdowns but in addition three interceptions. Cal does know tips on how to create a turnover so I might be weary of assuming Miami will choose him off 3 times on Saturday.
WF had all seven move catchers common double-digit yards per catch towards Cal. The 2 longest explosives had been to Demond Claiborne for a 44-yard TD and Donavon Greene on a 45-yard TD catch.
Claiborne additionally averaged 4.9 yards per rush on 23 carries and scored one on the bottom. Bachmeier additionally scored as soon as on the bottom together with RB Tate Carney.
Cal sacked Wake seven occasions with eight tackles for loss and recorded six PBU’s.
Above– You need to count on the gradual mesh and rep it. Gradual mesh is type of just like the previous freeze possibility that Syracuse ran with Marvin Graves and Donovan McNabb. It takes timing and preparation to run, and to defend.
Miami goes to battle with the WF run recreation until drastic modifications have taken place previously two weeks.
Above– The Miami DL wants a bounce again recreation. Rueben Bain, Tyler Barron, et al must create stress and switch that into sacks. Sacks are drive killers for an offense.
Above– Gradual mesh with an RPO skinny put up for a 1st down and journey contained in the +10.
Above– Gradual mesh doesn’t assure success. Mesh cost, the place the DE runs instantly at each gamers with a head of steam, pays off for a Cal TFL.
Above– “What’s open for WF?!” A double reverse move might get vast open. A scarcity of eye self-discipline for Miami’s again seven is a real challenge on trick performs.
Above– Neither Wake QB is excellent. Right here’s a fade that received picked off. Does Miami have an lively CB that may make this play? OJ Frederique may very well be that man. I can’t think about he’s the participant you’d assault with this, nonetheless.
Above– This time as an alternative of main up and over they throw a again shoulder throw. Excellent timing after which again tackling from the Cal CB.
Above– On the comeback path Wake motions to journeys to run stick. The TE is open sufficient and makes the play. Think about setting this as much as Mauigoa’s facet for the Dekes OC.
WF Protection
Fernando Mendoza averaged solely 6.9 yards per try whereas scoring three occasions (two passes, one rush) and throwing one interception.
Mendoza averaged 5.1 yards per rush even together with three sacks. Ward must scramble and launch to select up third downs, not wait and attempt to chuck it deep.
RB Jaivian Thomas averaged 6.6 yards per carry with a rating, however Jaydn Ott was held to solely 1.6 yards per carry.
Solely 4 Cal receivers averaged double-digit yards per catch vs. WF. Two Golden Bears caught explosives vs. Wake.
The Cal offensive line allowed three sacks and eight tackles for loss. Wake’s protection accounted for under two PBU’s and should choose that quantity up when dealing with Miami.
Above– Y Cross is open, it’s an Air Raid staple. Xavier Restrepo working the cross with Damien Martinez and Cam McCormick within the backfield in move professional might assist Miami get the deeper throws out.
Above– Bash ideas are fairly enjoyable within the run recreation. The counter motion goes with the QB run, if the again facet DE squeezes with the pullers it’s a give learn to the RB.
Above– Slightly rub route with Isaiah Horton and Retrepo would work properly right here prefer it does for Cal vs. Wake within the pink zone.
Above– Movement to slide attracts the overhang and just a little outside-in transfer frees up the put up for a cut up second and a 1st down contained in the +5.
Above– Ward has been inclined to a strip sack over his FBS profession and Mendoza is the sufferer to 1 right here. If Wake is wise this recreation is short-short-short and possessions are at a premium.
Above– I doubt Miami runs Ward on a energy learn. Ward is on the ‘saving myself for the NFL’ second of the season for those who learn the tea leaves between the FSU, Duke and Georgia Tech video games. As a substitute, Miami can run shovel possibility with Elijah Arroyo beneath on the shovel and somebody sooner like Ajay Allen because the ‘pitch man.’
Above– A bounce minimize and three damaged tackles? Miami goes to surrender these third and brief kind of performs until LB Mauigoa and Wesley Bissainthe play with their eyes up for as soon as.
The Forecast
Per ESPN, Miami’s win expectancy is 95.7%. Miami is a 20+ level favourite over Wake per a lot of the playing websites. The Canyonero Keys to Victory vs. Wake Forest are:
1- Win Bully Ball. This summer season I had this as a bully ball win, but when Virginia Tech hadn’t already drawn the blueprint Georgia Tech simply dropped the pin to Miami opponents on tips on how to beat Guidry. Miami might want to dominate the Wake RPO recreation and gradual mesh handoff whereas proving they will run on the Demon Deacons protection.
2- Win the kicking recreation. The Hurricanes have the very best kicker within the nation and have to proceed to make the most of that weapon. The place Miami has struggled is on masking kicks and punts, and returning kicks and punts. Cal gained the kicking recreation vs. WF, Miami must as nicely.
3- Restrict WF’s huge performs. Miami clearly can’t afford to undergo from a pair of 40+ yard TD throws and Wake’s skill to grind the clock on the bottom. If groups are sensible they’ll restrict the ‘Canes possessions enjoying gradual and choosing up third and 4th downs on the bottom earlier than trying a deep shot towards a gaggle of struggling DB’s.
Prediction: Miami by 17.