Unthinkable only a week or two in the past, the current chaos brought on by the SEC (and to a lesser extent, the Large XII) has thrust the ACC right into a place to earn as many as three playoff bids within the inaugural twelve group playoffs. Final evening, the playoff committee slotted Miami because the No. 6 ranked group, SMU as No. 9, and Clemson at No. 12.
SMU (10-1, 7-0) is a lock to play within the ACC Championship regardless in the event that they beat Cal (6-5, 2-5) on Saturday. Miami (10-1, 6-1) controls its future to play for a convention title: beat Syracuse (8-3, 4-3) up north and the Hurricanes will punch their ticket to Charlotte. Clemson (9-2, 7-1), who has completed their ACC schedule, faces in-state rival South Carolina (8-3, 5-3) on Saturday and can advance to the ACC Championship if Miami stumbles at Syracuse.
If Clemson, Miami, or SMU lose this weekend they’ll nearly actually kiss goodbye any shot of a CFP at-large start. However what in the event that they don’t? What if all three win? Our buddies at Draft Kings favor all three to win their closing contests. SMU is a 13.5 level favourite, Miami is a ten.5 level favourite, and Clemson is a 2.5 favourite. The percentages of a three-way parlay hitting on SMU, Miami, and Clemson all profitable is +162 odds (i.e. about 8-5 odds, or a roughly 39% probability). Not unhealthy.
The trail to a few ACC playoff groups then turns into practical. Clearly the winner of Miami vs. SMU earns the automated start to the playoffs. The loser could be a two-loss convention runner-up whose second loss is ‘respectable’ comparatively talking: Miami’s being a one possession loss at presently 7 win Georgia Tech; and SMU’s being a one possession loss to presently 9 win BYU. By the way in which, these losses may look even higher this weekend ought to Georgia Tech shock Georgia or BYU sneak again into the Large XII title sport. As for Clemson, they’ll be coming off a hypothetical win over a surging South Carolina group that itself is on the playoff bubble as a 3 loss SEC group. If these groups end with two losses, the ESPN Playoff Predictor offers Miami a 71% probability to get an at-large start because the ACC runner-up, SMU a 44% probability for an at-large start because the ACC runner-up, and Clemson a 37% probability for an at-large start if their season ends on Saturday with win.
Frankly, the percentages appear higher than that. One level of perception of the Playoff Committee’s pondering is that they’ve typically ranked Miami, SMU, and Clemson forward of SEC groups which have an additional loss. Final week, the committee put Miami (8) forward of then-two loss groups Ole Miss (8), Georgia (9), Tennessee (10), and Texas A&M (15) – and Miami was basically tied with then-two loss Alabama (7), who they flipped whereas Miami was on a bye week. Additionally, again in Week 11, then-undefeated Miami (4) was forward of each SEC group together with one-loss Texas (5).
The Committee has ranked SMU much like Miami, albeit a tad weaker. In Week 11, the Committee ranked one loss SMU (13) forward of two loss Texas A&M (14), LSU (15), and Ole Miss (16). Nevertheless, final week the Committee had one loss SMU (13) slotted behind two loss Alabama (7), Ole Miss (9), Georgia (10), and Tennessee (11). The importance of that’s the Committee may drop SMU additional than it will be keen to drop Miami.
For a two-loss ACC Runner-Up Miami or SMU, the query is whether or not the Committee would drop the loser behind a three-loss SEC group like Alabama or Georgia (as an SEC runner-up). The SEC loving, media spin machine is already advocating for a 3 loss Georgia group to be chosen if the Bulldog’s third loss is within the SEC Championship Recreation (Georgia is locked to play this weekend’s winner of Texas vs. Texas A&M). The identical ought to be mentioned for Miami and SMU. Each are ranked this week as worthy of an at-large bid, and in concept that shouldn’t change if one loses to the opposite in a convention title sport.
The trail for Clemson is a little more precarious as a result of the Tigers are the primary group out and want to leap someone forward of them. A Boise State loss received’t assist as a result of they’re taking a convention champion slot, not an at-large slot. Clemson most likely wants one of many following upsets: No. 8 Tennessee (9-2) at Vanderbilt (6-5); No. 7 Georgia (9-2) vs. Georgia Tech (7-4); or No. 10 Indiana (10-1) v. Purdue (1-10). Vandy and Georgia Tech each have some probability of pulling off the upset contemplating every has already pulled it off this yr in opposition to Alabama and Miami, respectively. Purdue is so unhealthy they might envy a season like FSU’s, so fats probability of an Indiana upset. However it appears doubtless {that a} two-loss Clemson group would transfer forward of a 3 loss Tennessee group or a 4 loss Georgia group (if the Bulldogs additionally misplaced the SEC title sport). There’s additionally some probability the Committee would slot a two-loss Clemson group forward of a two-loss Notre Dame group ought to the Irish lose their finale in opposition to USC. Though it’d require an enormous drop for Notre Dame, Clemson would then have a greater ‘greatest’ win (South Carolina > Texas A&M) whereas Notre Dame would have a a lot worse ‘worst’ loss (Northern Illinois < Louisville or a Georgia blowout). One different variable is that if three loss Texas A&M upsets Texas and Georgia to say the SEC Championship. Whereas unlikely, that may guarantee the SEC of a 3 loss group within the area probably squeezing out Clemson.
As a last variable to contemplate, there may be some probability Miami may very well be chosen for an at-large start even when they lose to Syracuse on Saturday (ESPN offers it a 39% probability). However this text is about all three ACC groups making the playoffs. If the ACC Championship sport is between SMU and Clemson, a three-loss Clemson would nearly actually be out. If Clemson received the ACC, now the Committee must determine between two loss SMU and two loss Miami, and the one means each could be chosen is that if one of many aforementioned upsets occurred to different potential at-large groups. So the state of affairs required to get all three of those groups into the playoffs is actually the identical.
So, to recap:
- Miami, SMU, and Clemson must all win this weekend or else ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips’ dream of three ACC groups being chosen might be lifeless on arrival (with a small probability if Miami loses however SMU wins Saturday and Clemson wins this Saturday and the ACC Championship).
- If all three win, the ACC Championship sport loser between Miami and SMU can have two losses and the Committee can not drop them beneath one other group searching for an at large-birth (primarily three-loss SEC groups). This appears doubtless, and the ACC could be in an excellent place to get two playoff groups.
- Clemson is at present outdoors trying in as a 3rd ACC group, so the Tigers most likely want another at-large searching for group to be upset this weekend. The perfect probabilities for which might be Vandy over Tennessee or Georgia Tech over Georgia (though Georgia nonetheless has a shot on the computerized start as an SEC Champion). USC dropping Notre Dame to 2 losses may additionally do the trick.
That’s not a probable state of affairs, nevertheless it’s believable.