2025 The State of the ACC: Expertise Acquisition

This can be a three-part collection of posts on The State of the ACC in 2025

The age previous query: is it Jimmy’s and Joe’s or X’s and O’s? In fact there’s a baseline quantity of expertise that groups have to have with the intention to compete for ~15 video games on the highest degree of faculty soccer.

Probably the most gifted groups often survive and advance due to the depth of their roster. The way in which to win a match is often by way of depth and mitigation of great accidents to essential gamers (ie. quarterbacks, until you’re Ohio State in 2014).

Whereas Arizona State, Boise State, and SMU didn’t have an opportunity to essentially compete within the Faculty Soccer Playoff for the championship- they did make the match and that counts for lots greater than what the 2024 Miami Hurricanes managed to tug off underneath third 12 months coach Mario Cristobal.

Which facet of Acquisition, Improvement (particular person place teaching, energy and conditioning) and Deployment (depth chart, place assignments, scheme) is price probably the most? Many school coaches and recruiting staffers have advised me that expertise degree (acquisition) is price about 70% of the puzzle.

Most coaches agree that Deployment (scheme) is price solely about 10% and presumably much less, even right down to 5%. Which explains how Ed Orgeron, Mack Brown, City Meyer and Dabo Swinney can win nationwide championships in several eras. These aren’t precisely coaches recognized for his or her schematic prowess and neither Swinney nor Meyer had earlier coordinator expertise.

That leaves growth someplace within the ballpark of 20% of a program’s success fee. Michigan and Clemson may disprove that concept whereas OSU and 2019 LSU show it. However clearly a very powerful facet is recruiting and that’s what we’ll dissect as we speak.

Excessive Faculty Recruiting

In 2022, Miami was sixteenth within the nation with zero 5 stars, and 10 4 stars. Within the ACC, that put Miami behind Clemson (tenth, two 5 stars), and UNC (eleventh, two 5 stars) and forward of Florida State (twentieth).

The two Clemson 5 stars have been QB Cade Klubnik and CB Jeadyn Lukus who’re each nonetheless on the Tigers roster. The Tar heels 5 stars have been OT Zach Rice and DL Travis Shaw. Rice continues to be in Chapel Hill whereas Shaw is now a Texas Longhorn.

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For reference, the highest rated participant per 247 Composite within the FSU and Miami courses at the moment are at G5 colleges. That exhibits you the way off the Miami and FSU highschool evaluations have been at occasions.

In 2023, Miami’s class was ranked seventh within the nation with two 5 star prospects. Clemson got here in eleventh with 19 4 stars, FSU was twentieth once more whereas Louisville got here in twenty ninth. Miami’s prime two prospects have been each OT’s in Francis Mauigoa and Samson Okunlola. Mauigoa is a two 12 months starter whereas Okunlola has been a developmental prospect.

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247 had Tigers DL Vic Burley as a 5 star however not one on the composite rankings. FSU’s 5 star was WR Hykeem Williams. Burley has but to report a sack for the Tigers and Williams has two whole touchdowns for the ‘Noles.

Louisville’s prime rated prospect was LB TJ Capers. Capers performed in 11 video games in ‘24 recording six tackles and an INT.

In 2024, Miami’s recruiting class was 4th within the nation with three 5 star prospects signing on with the ‘Canes. Clemson got here in eleventh, FSU twelfth and UNC was twenty sixth. Miami’s composite 5 stars have been DT Justin Scott, DL Armondo Blount, and DE Marquise Lightfoot. All three stay on the Hurricanes roster with solely Scott having recorded a sack.

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Clemson’s two 5 stars have been LB Sammy Brown and WR TJ Moore. Each are nonetheless with the Tigers as of this put up. FSU’s prime rated prospect was QB Luke Kromenhoek who’s now a Mississippi State Bulldog. UNC’s highest rated prospect was Jordan Shipp who caught a landing as a real freshman.

That takes us to the 2025 highschool signing class. The ACC was completely buried by the Energy 2 conferences (SEC and Huge Ten). Solely Notre Dame bought within the top-12 recruiting courses with out being within the P2. Miami got here in thirteenth with FSU at nineteenth, Georgia Tech at twenty first and Clemson at twenty sixth. The Tigers have been the one program of the highest 4 ACC courses to signal a composite 5 star.

Miami’s prime rated prospect is edge rusher Hayden Lowe out of CA. FSU’s stud is DT Kevin Wynn who suggestions the scales at 340 kilos. GT’s finest participant is 247 5 star Josh Petty, an OT from GA. Whereas Clemson pulled 315 pound DL Amare Adams.

Miami’s largest subject would be the lack of five-star prospects popping out of South Florida, the ‘Canes house recruiting space. As of this writing there may be one single five-star in all of Florida, in the meantime the town of Baltimore alone has two of the 30 listed 247 Composite 5* prospects.

Switch Recruiting

A wholly totally different world is switch recruiting. Miami pulled within the fifth finest switch class per 247 in 2025. That features QB Carson Beck. FSU got here in seventh and UNC twelfth.

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In ‘24, FSU hauled within the seventh finest portal class whereas Miami signed the tenth finest class and Louisville pulled no.15 within the nation. In 2023, FSU was sixth, Miami seventh and Louisville twelfth.

I’m unsure if going again any additional with switch rankings is even definitely worth the time as the quantity of motion and the expertise ranges have been so drastic within the COVID 12 months meet limitless switch period.

Blue Chip Ratio

If you happen to take the HS recruiting numbers, Miami averages having the tenth finest class within the country- and that’s with the 2022 class weighing down the imply. Miami’s switch class could be seventh within the nation.

On the subject of Bud Elliott’s Blue Chip Ratio– solely two ACC groups made the lower in 2024: Clemson and Miami. Clemson had a 64% BCR whereas Miami had a 61%. Florida State simply missed the lower with a 49% BCR. In comparison with the CFBPO Nationwide Champion Ohio State Buckeyes, and the ACC has an extended strategy to go. OSU’s BCR was 90% final season.

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In Elliott’s estimation, solely groups with a 50% or above BCR have an opportunity at profitable the nationwide title. The bottom BCR to win the title was the 2016 Clemson Tigers squad at 52%. Solely two groups have managed a nationwide title within the playoff period with a 50% BCR- the ‘16 Tigers and the 2023 Michigan Wolverines (54%).

OSU gained their titles at 68% and 90%, the Georgia Bulldogs back-to-back titles have been 80% and 77%, Bama’s three natties within the CFBPO Period have been at 77%, 80%, and 83% (2020). That uber-talented 2019 LSU Tigers squad with Joe Burrow at QB- a 64% BCR.

Picture by Gus Stark/LSU/College Pictures through Getty Pictures

This all simply proves that what SMU did in 12 months three underneath Rhett Lashlee, 12 months one within the ACC was fairly outstanding. Miami’s BCR was twelfth within the nation in 2024 however the ‘Canes managed to drop video games to 2 unranked groups and miss the ACC Championship Sport and an at massive bid into the CFBPO- expertise be damned.

The Wrap

On paper Miami has the expertise to make the ACC Championship Sport and the 12-team CFB Playoff. The difficulty for the Hurricanes has been that this isn’t EA Sports activities Faculty Soccer ‘26.

Miami must gel along with a brand new switch quarterback, one other switch heart, and a wholly new defensive backfield amongst different modifications we’ll consider because the collection strikes on.

The expertise is there, aggregately, the query is will or not it’s developed and deployed correctly and are these the ‘finest’ gamers or simply probably the most gifted gamers?