The Clemson Tigers received the 2024 ACC Championship Sport over the SMU Mustangs 34-31 in Charlotte, NC this previous December. The Tigers required Miami’s self-implosion as a way to backdoor into the ACCCG the place they edged SMU on a late recreation 56-yard subject purpose.
After their huge win over the ‘Stangs, the Tigers instantly dropped their playoff recreation to the Texas Longhorns by a double-digit margin. The Tigers have been again on high of one of many “Little 2” of the Energy 4.
In keeping with ESPN’s Invoice Connelly, the Tigers have been each fortunate and good. Invoice C, as he’s recognized throughout social media, fortunate is made up of turnover margin above the imply and shut recreation win totals. His concept is that of all of the fumbles pressured, half needs to be recovered by the offense.
Turnovers
In terms of turnover margin- Clemson, Boston Faculty and Cal have been the luckiest groups. Whereas probably the most unfortunate turnover groups have been Florida State, NC State and SMU. It’s no shock {that a} sloppy and undisciplined group like FSU and a excessive risk-reward QB like Kevin Jennings (SMU) resulted in greater turnover numbers. In terms of TO’s, Miami wasn’t very fortunate and actually a smidge unfortunate with the ball not bouncing Miami’s manner.
Shut Video games
Relating to shut video games, Connelly analyzes what number of video games the computer systems say a group ought to’ve received in comparison with their precise file. Is your QB actually as clutch as Patrick Mahomes or did “luck” simply roll your alma mater’s manner?
The shut recreation champions of the ACC have been the Syracuse Orange and Duke Blue Devils. ‘Cuse stole two wins (I ponder the place one got here from) whereas Duke stole simply over one win.
On the flip aspect, Cal and Miami each misplaced simply in need of two video games they in any other case shouldn’t have (take your choose of the three losses re Miami). NCSU and Va. Tech have been additionally unfortunate in ‘24, with Cal and VT each dropping on miracle comebacks by Miami.
Accidents
Connelly additionally analyzed lineup consistency with reference to ‘damage luck.’ It’s a no brainer that a few of the greatest groups relating to expertise in FBS have been additionally wholesome. Stacking depth and remaining wholesome is a recipe for fulfillment in any sport.
Clearly some accidents are extra ‘vital’ than others. Miami with out Cam Ward is a six win program, whereas Miami with out OL Ryan Rodriguez nonetheless received 10 video games.
Probably the most constant lineups within the ACC have been UVA, Miami, SMU and Louisville. The least constant lineups within the ACC belong to Florida State, Virginia Tech and Syracuse. Clearly for some groups, ie. Syracuse, that inconsistency didn’t damage the Orange from taking part in about their means.
What about 2025?
Connelly lists two of Miami’s 2025 opponents as doubtless candidates for an improved file. Each are instate rivals within the Florida Gators and FSU Seminoles. The Gators are on a predicted upswing because of DJ Lagway coming into his personal at QB and the truth that head coach Billy Napier has improved the group from 5-7 to 8-5 whereas going through the thirteenth hardest schedule in ‘24. If UF can keep wholesome and Lagway pans out the Gators might be within the Faculty Soccer Playoff race.
The Seminoles retained Mike Norvell after a 2-10 season however fired their coordinators. In keeping with Invoice C, “(FSU) have been 129th in turnovers luck, 99th in second-order win distinction and one hundred and tenth in damage ratio.” Irrespective of who’s behind heart or calling performs that’s a recipe for catastrophe and it was one on the sphere for the ‘Noles final season.
For Miami, the Hurricanes should show they will keep wholesome, at the least impartial with reference to luck, but in addition end their shut video games in ‘25. Miami’s power of schedule goes to extend from sixtieth a 12 months in the past with extra ranked groups on the schedule within the upcoming season.
This season Miami will depend on a QB that’s already been injured and turnover susceptible at instances. The hope is {that a} new defensive coordinator can flip that turnover luck the place Miami has struggled for years on the sphere in producing turnovers.
In the long run luck isn’t actual. The most effective and healthiest groups usually survive and advance. Stack expertise, hold them wholesome, win ball video games.