The Miami Hurricanes (10-1) head to Syracuse, NY to tackle the Syracuse Orange (8-3) on Saturday, November thirtieth at 3:30 on ESPN.
Miami at present has a six recreation win streak over Syracuse relationship again to 1999. Miami was slaughtered by ‘Cuse within the Orange’s final win over the Hurricanes, on Thanksgiving weekend, with Donovan McNabb at QB in ‘98.
The Doppler
The SP+ analytics has Miami because the eighth total workforce within the nation. The Miami offense is 1st within the nation, the protection is thirty first and the kicking recreation is twelfth. Syracuse is the 53rd ranked workforce in FBS. The Orange offense is twenty eighth, the protection is 82nd and the kicking recreation is 103rd.
The Hurricanes offense remains to be the finest in FBS on third downs changing on 55% of their makes an attempt. Miami can also be eighth on 4th downs changing 73% of their tries. The Syracuse offense is ninth on third down, changing on 48% of makes an attempt and 14th on 4th down changing on 70% of their tries.
The ‘Canes protection is twenty eighth on cash downs holding groups to 35% conversion price. The Syracuse protection is forty eighth on third downs holding their opponents to 37% on the cash down.
Picture by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Photographs
Miami is forty ninth in turnover margin per recreation with a +0.2, whereas Syracuse is sixty fifth with a 0.0 margin.
The ‘Canes are 119th on penalty yards per recreation after being flagged for nearly 68.5 yards, whereas the Orange are 109th in FBS after being flagged for 63-yards of penalties. That is going to be a sloppy recreation on each side.
Syracuse has trotted three kickers on the sector and whereas they’ve solely missed one PAT, they’ve struggled on discipline targets going 12-of-20. Syracuse is fairly even with Miami with regards to punt and kick returns- ineffective.
The Movie
We’re going to try the Syracuse at Cal recreation from Nov. sixteenth. The Orange knocked off the Bears 33-25 and being a ‘like’ opponent they’ll make for a powerful comparability. Cal is at present the thirty eighth finest workforce in FBS per the SP+.
Syracuse gained the sport whereas changing on 11-of-22 third and 4th down conversions, whereas Cal completed 8-of-13 on cash downs.
Cal turned the ball over twice whereas Kyle McCord and the Orange didn’t flip the ball over. ‘Cuse was flagged for 50-yards in penalties whereas Cal was solely flagged for 36.
This might be proof you’ll be able to lose penalty yards and cash downs however not the turnover battle with a 2-TO disparity.
‘Cuse Offense
McCord completed with one landing on 7.0 yards per move try towards a powerful Cal move protection.
Three Orange receivers averaged double-digit yards per catch, and Oronde Gadsden II went off for 109 yards on eight catches.
RB LeQuint Allen took on the workload averaging 4.7 yards per carry with two scores. The ‘Cuse O-Line allowed solely one sack and three tackles for loss.
Above– It is a play-action and designed display screen. Syracuse throws it out and a properly coached Cal workforce sniffs this out from movie research. One defender comes off a block and the opposite capitalizes.
Above– 4th downs can be at a premium in a excessive scoring affair. SU isn’t afraid of the QB sneak “tush push” stuff. I used to be stunned Cam Ward agreed to the QB sneak vs. Wake Forest. I assumed he had a Patrick Mahomes rule occurring re operating the soccer, particularly a sneak.
Above– Combo to the second degree, present persistence. Gradual to / quick through. if I’m ‘Cuse I’m mixing in stretch, toss, jet sweep with some exterior zone vs. Mauigoa and Tyler Baron sorts that wrestle to work laterally (Maui) and set the sting (Baron).
Above– Take your test downs, particularly vs. Miami’s LB’ers and with how poorly the ‘Canes monitor and end in house. If an OC can get Mauigoa or Alderman on a RB 1-on-1 you’re taking it each time.
Above– Madden 2003 stuff right here. Below heart, I-Formation, fast pitch for a TD. Cal isn’t even fooled, they only can’t make a play in house.
Above– What’s open vs Miami? How a couple of deep crossing route with a RB within the flat below it as a test down?
Above– When they wrestle to deal with in house you assault house. Make their CB’s step up and do the job earlier than you make issues too advanced.
‘Cuse Protection
The Orange protection held Fernando Mendoza to one landing with two interceptions on 6.6 yards per try.
RB’s Jaivian Thomas and Jaydn Ott each had days averaging 26.7 and 7.1 yards per carry and one landing a chunk.
5 Bears receivers averaged double-digit yards per catch numbers towards ‘Cuse, that means Miami ought to have an explosive day on offense and protection.
The Cal offensive line allowed 4 sacks and 9 TFL’s towards the Syracuse protection.
Above- SU is coached up. This little swing no display screen play doesn’t work. It’s a TFL. A few issues… why pull the OT vs. letting the DE come upfield and inside?
In the case of the OODA Loop you allowed the protection to run play facet, with a key (the OT) main you there with the orbit and swing. Simply not properly designed or executed and one-read screens are harmful performs.
Above– ‘Cuse drops seven and will get a slight push from the entrance 4. 4 over three to that facet and it’s a straightforward decide beneath.
Above– This one isn’t completely on Mendoza, it’s additionally a terrific play from the DB. Timing and preparation results in execution. That is additionally why you need to throw balls exterior if it’s again shoulder, so it’s out of bounds or a catch, not a decide.
Above– What’s open vs the ‘Cuse protection? Break up zone with an explosive again. It’s Jordan Lyle’s time to shine.
Above– Now Mendoza does go again shoulder drop out and it really works. 1st down and out of hazard.
Above– Not each break up zone is made equal. SU has seven roll into the field and stuff this SZ for a TFL.
Above– Insert zone goes to the home. Endurance and imaginative and prescient are vital instruments for a RB. Mark Fletcher would look good operating this contained in the purple zone.
Above– Extra persistence and imaginative and prescient. Let the play develop and discover the opening as soon as the OL can work their combo to the 2nd degree.
Above– I’m an enormous fan of smash. Cal is bunched in tight and it’s slide from the skin man and nook from the within man. Mendoza drops it in there.
The Forecast
Per ESPN, the win expectancy for Miami is 81.7% and usually a 10 level favourite over ‘Cuse. The Canyonero Keys to Victory for Miami are:
1- Out-gun the gunners. ‘Cuse hardly performs protection and that’ll feed into Miami’s love of taking part in a excessive scoring, excessive possession recreation. I doubt Syracuse desires to decelerate and run the sport that Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech ran towards UM. They’ll greater than doubtless come out weapons blazing, trying to embarrass Lance Guidry’s secondary.
2- Hold the move rush coming. If Miami desires to beat McCord they should be in his face. Blitzing Francisco Mauigoa creates a gap within the move protection, however he wasn’t going to fill that gap anyway. Convey the warmth and maintain McCord off steadiness or he’ll carve you up.
3- Minimize down on the silly errors. Kick returns for TD, faux punts, trick performs, unhealthy penalties, dumb turnovers- these are the issues Miami has to keep away from in a excessive scoring recreation. I feel this may keep shut, a couple of 10 level recreation, Miami can’t afford that quarter the place Ward throws ugly picks they usually accept FG’s after penalties shoot the drive within the foot.
The Prediction: Miami by 10.