On Dec. 15, 1984, Montana State accomplished a worst-to-first run for the ages. One season after going 1-10, Dave Arnold’s Bobcats started the season 2-2 however caught fireplace offensively, beat a top-10 Boise State crew in October and even upset Fresno State 35-31 late within the season. They charged into the 12-team playoff with the No. 3 seed, beat Arkansas State and Rhode Island by a mixed 29 factors, then unleashed hell on Louisiana Tech within the title sport. Quarterback Kelly Bradley threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns, Tech did not rating till the ultimate minute of the sport, and MSU cruised 19-6.
Montana State has been chasing that title feeling for 40 years. And Monday night time in Frisco, Texas (7 p.m. ET on ESPN), the Bobcats have their greatest likelihood but of incomes a second ring. All that is left is to defeat FCS’ final last boss.
After ceding management of FCS to rival South Dakota State for a few years, North Dakota State defeated the Jackrabbits twice in 2024; the Bison are again within the last for the eleventh time in 14 years. They knocked Montana State out of the playoffs in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2023, and after successful eight of 9 titles between 2011 and 2019, they’re searching for their second title of the 2020s.
Will we see one other North Dakota State coronation or will Montana State conjure the spirit of 1984?
How they bought right here
File: 15-0
SP+ rankings: first general, first on offense, second on protection
Key regular-season outcomes: def. New Mexico 35-31, def. Idaho 38-7, def. UC Davis 30-28, def. Montana 34-11
Playoff run: def. UT Martin 49-17, def. No. 8 Idaho 52-19, def. No. 4 South Dakota 31-17
Defeating FCS royalty comes with its personal set of challenges, however there needs to be no doubting who one of the best crew in FCS has been by means of 15 video games. Montana State has been devastating from begin to end. Regardless of handing New Mexico a pair of defensive touchdowns, the Bobcats nonetheless overcame the FBS Lobos, dominating statistically (complete yards: 567-324) and scoring 21 fourth-quarter factors to win their season opener.
They’ve barely wobbled since. Their solely tight sport thus far towards an FCS opponent was solely form of tight: On Nov. 16, they went on a 30-0 run to take a commanding lead at eventual quarterfinalist UC Davis earlier than the Aggies scored three late touchdowns (thanks partly to an onside kick restoration) to make it shut. Nobody has had the ball with an opportunity to take a late lead on MSU because the New Mexico sport. South Dakota performed an superior sport towards the Bobcats within the semifinals and nonetheless could not get nearer than 14 factors down the stretch.
File: 13-2
SP+ rankings: third general, second on offense, fifth on protection
Key regular-season outcomes: misplaced to Colorado 31-26, def. North Dakota 41-17, def. South Dakota State 13-9, def. Missouri State 59-21, misplaced to South Dakota 29-28
Playoff run: def. Abilene Christian 51-31, def. No. 7 Mercer 31-7, def. No. 3 South Dakota State 28-21
NDSU took on a harder schedule and got here inside 6 factors of an unbeaten file. The Bison led Colorado at halftime however could not fairly overcome a pair of Travis Hunter touchdowns within the second half, falling 4 yards brief on a game-ending Hail Mary.
They needed to survive an early 38-35 thriller towards East Tennessee State, recovering an onside kick and scoring twice within the final two minutes, however as soon as the protection discovered its rhythm, NDSU began trying like NDSU once more. Over their final 11 video games, solely three have been shut: the 2 wins over South Dakota State and the tight loss at South Dakota.
MSU offense, first-team all-conference picks: QB Tommy Mellott (6-foot-0, 208 lbs., Sr.), RB Scottre Humphrey (5-11, 210, So.), TE Rohan Jones (6-3, 235, Jr.), RG Marcus Wehr (6-4, 300, Sr.), LT Conner Moore (6-5, 310, So.), PR Taco Dowler (5-9, 175, So.)
In his first collegiate sport in 2021, he ripped off a 44-yard run. In his fourth, he scored from 74 yards. In his first three playoff video games he threw for 449 yards and rushed for 411 whereas main MSU to the nationwide title sport.
For many of 4 years now, Montana State quarterback Tommy Mellott has been a unicorn, combining ultra-efficient passing with downright reckless dashing, throwing his 208-pound body round with abandon and doing no matter it takes to get the job finished. He bought injured early within the 2021 title sport towards NDSU, and he is been dinged up sooner or later mainly yearly since. But when he is within the sport, he is most likely doing one thing ridiculous. He has 5 profession 150-yard dashing video games (together with a 273-yard, three-touchdown efficiency towards Weber State in 2022), and he has 5 profession 225-yard passing video games (together with a 300-yard, four-touchdown efficiency towards UT Martin within the second spherical of this yr’s playoffs).
In 2024, Mellott and his supporting forged have produced probably the most sensible offense in FCS. Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones have mixed for two,494 dashing yards and 29 touchdowns, with Mellott chipping in 915 yards and 14 extra scores in lower than eight carries per sport. In the meantime, Mellott has accomplished 69% of his passes at 13.5 yards per completion with a downright unfair 29-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio. He does not have a go-to receiver — he has three: Wideouts Taco Dowler (additionally an ace punt returner) and Ty McCullouch and tight finish Rohan Jones have mixed for 100 catches, 1,494 yards and 23 scores.
A case may very well be made that elite line play was the final piece of the puzzle in head coach Brent Vigen’s four-year constructing challenge — it is the place the Bobcats most noticeably lacked of their first few conferences towards NDSU and SDSU. However regardless of beginning three sophomores up entrance, the Bobcats boast an abundance of each expertise and uncooked measurement up entrance, averaging 6-4, 305 kilos throughout the road with a pair of first-team all-Huge Sky performers. MSU averages 41.3 factors per sport and hasn’t been held below 31 all season. It was jarring when South Dakota compelled 4 straight punts within the second half of the semifinals, however it did not assist all that a lot since MSU had scored on 5 of its first six drives.
NDSU protection, first-team all-conference picks: DT Eli Mostaert (6-3, 289, Sr.), LB Logan Kopp (6-1, 220, Jr.)
NDSU’s protection took a short time to shift into gear in 2024. Together with the loss to Colorado and the near-upset towards ETSU, the Bison allowed no less than 24 factors and no less than 367 yards in three of their first 4 video games. However within the 11 video games since, they’ve allowed solely 15.7 factors and 299.1 yards per sport regardless of enjoying over half their video games in that span towards playoff groups.
Veteran linemen Eli Mostaert, Loshiaka Roques and Kody Huisman have mixed for twenty-four tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks and 12 QB accelerates entrance (Huisman additionally has blocked two kicks), and linebacker Logan Kopp is the prototypical tackling machine. However as has been customary over the past 15 years or so, the Bison’s greatest energy is depth. 9 NDSU defenders have recorded no less than 4 tackles for loss, 9 have no less than two sacks, 12 have defended (intercepted or damaged up) no less than three passes, 13 have compelled a fumble and 14 have recovered one. MSU has one of the best offense they’ve confronted, however in two video games towards SDSU (No. 3 in offensive SP+) the Bison allowed a mean of simply 333 yards and 19 factors. They don’t seem to be doubtless to surrender too many straightforward yards, even to Mellott & Co.
A mistake-free Bison assault
NDSU offense, first-team all-conference picks: QB Cam Miller (6-1, 212, Sr.), WR Bryce Lance (6-3, 204, Jr.), RT Mason Miller (6-7, 305, Sr.), LT Gray Zabel (6-6, 305, Sr.)
The bar is excessive in Fargo, and in comparison with the absurd expertise that has rolled by means of city over the past 15 years, this NDSU offense will not be probably the most explosive this FCS dynasty has produced. Backs CharMar Brown and Barika Kpeenu have mixed for 1,825 yards and 21 touchdowns, however they common simply 5.1 yards per carry — good however not elite. Cam Miller has thrown for 3,052 yards and 31 TDs, however his 12.8 yards per completion is lower than you’d anticipate.
The Bison can nonetheless floor groups down with mistake-free effectivity, nevertheless. They convert 54% of their third downs and 68% of their fourth downs, and also you simply cannot take the ball away from them: They’ve dedicated an FCS-low six turnovers in 15 video games. (Granted, there’s some luck concerned in that — they’ve misplaced solely one among 10 fumbles. However 10 fumbles in 15 video games is minimal too.) The road continues to be enormous, averaging 6-5 and 304 kilos, the backs are nonetheless laborious to convey down (Brown and Kpeenu are 214 and 209 kilos, respectively), and in case your safeties chew on a run faux, they will nonetheless go deep with breakout star wideout Bryce Lance (964 yards, 16 TDs), whose unreal, one-handed seize despatched NDSU to the title sport.
THE ONE-HAND GRAB 🤯@NDSUfootball takes the lead with Bryce Lance’s third landing of the sport. #FCSPlayoffs x 🎥 ABC pic.twitter.com/lBNM58RpCA
— NCAA FCS Soccer (@NCAA_FCS) December 21, 2024
Whereas Miller’s upside most likely does not match that of Carson Wentz or Trey Lance (Bryce’s older brother), there’s nothing you possibly can throw at him that he hasn’t seen earlier than: The reigning Missouri Valley offensive participant of the yr will play in his 67th profession sport Monday night time.
Should you aren’t cautious, the Bison will rating on you with particular groups too. For pretty much as good as MSU’s Taco Dowler is in returns, NDSU can get you with both a punt return (Jackson Williams: 10.8 yards per return and one TD) or a kick return (Jackson Williams and TK Marshall: 29.9 yards per return and two scores).
MSU protection, first-team all-conference picks: Edge Brody Grebe (6-3, 250, Sr.), LB McCade O’Reilly (6-0, 220, Sr.), SS Rylan Ortt (6-1, 210, Sr.)
When MSU bought mauled by NDSU within the 2021 title sport, the Bobcats’ protection had solely two gamers on the depth chart listed at greater than 270 kilos. The Bison did what they do towards all overmatched foes and road-graded MSU for 380 dashing yards.
MSU nonetheless does not precisely have Georgia’s mammoth defensive entrance, however the 2024 Bobcats are larger than they had been in 2021. Beginning tackles Paul Brott and Alec Eckert are listed at 290 and 280 kilos, respectively, and Brody Grebe is a sturdy 250 at finish. New Mexico averaged 262.8 dashing yards per sport towards FBS opponents however managed solely 152 towards MSU, and solely Jap Washington topped 152 on the Bobcats.
To maneuver the ball on them, groups usually should do it by means of the air. UC Davis’ Miles Hastings, Idaho’s Jack Layne and South Dakota’s Aidan Bouman mixed to go 62-for-92 for 795 yards, 5 TDs and a couple of interceptions towards the Bobcats, and whereas loads of that yardage got here when these opponents had been down double digits, it is nonetheless strong work. After all, it additionally got here with a price: MSU sacked these three quarterbacks 10 instances. Led by ends Grebe and Kenneth Eiden IV (mixed: 16.5 sacks) and linebackers McCade O’Reilly and Neil Every day (mixed: 15 TFLs), the Bobcats have recorded 36 sacks amongst 85 TFLs this season. You would possibly have the ability to hit them for a giant play right here and there, however provided that you get them earlier than they get you.
Projecting the title sport
MSU’s Brent Vigen and NDSU’s Tim Polasek each earned their figurative teaching levels on the College of Craig Bohl — Vigen coached for Bohl at NDSU from 2003-13 and at Wyoming from 2014-20 (principally as offensive coordinator), whereas Polasek joined Bohl’s NDSU employees in 2006, stayed in Fargo till 2016 and rejoined Bohl at Wyoming after a stint as Iowa’s offensive line coach. The paths of those two coaches have crossed always. So, too, have the paths of those groups, and each time they’ve met within the playoffs, NDSU has prevailed.
Vigen is 47-9 in 4 seasons at Montana State: 1-2 towards FBS groups, 2-2 towards rival Montana, 1-4 towards NDSU and SDSU and 43-1 towards everybody else. He and his Bobcats have been constructing towards this actual run for some time, and it appears like that is their time to interrupt by means of. It would not be a shock, nevertheless, if North Dakota State wrecked the Bobcats’ plans — it is what dynasties do, in spite of everything.
Three years in the past, MSU wasn’t fairly prepared. Mellott bought harm, the Bobcats had no likelihood of stopping the NDSU run sport, and Miller and the Bison rolled. It is likely to be a special story this time round.
ESPN Guess projection: MSU 30.0, NDSU 26.5 (MSU -3.5, over/below 56.5) | SP+ projection: MSU 30.2, NDSU 26.7