Rating the Florida school soccer groups for the 2025 season

The Miami Hurricanes are the clear favourite within the state of Florida heading into the 2025 school soccer season. Miami knocked off USF, Florida and FSU in 2024, and can look to proceed that development this fall.

And that’s not simply subjective reasoning, I’m about to provide the goal reasoning as well- due to ESPN’s Invoice Connelly.

Miami has the clear likelihood to show the purpose in ‘25 by going through Florida at house whereas heading to Doak Campbell Stadium to face the Seminoles slapped between two idle weeks.

We’re going to take a deep look into returning manufacturing, SP+ projections, and scheduling advantages for Miami. Relating to the schedule, Miami faces Florida after USF, whereas the Gators should play LSU in Loss of life Valley earlier than the ‘Canes. Miami has the idle sandwich for FSU, however the ‘Noles are on the highway at UVA the week prior and host Pitt the week after Miami.

Returning Manufacturing

Each low season Invoice Connelly of ESPN places collectively his returning manufacturing numbers for the upcoming season. Per Invoice C:

However the gist stays the identical: Excessive or low returning manufacturing percentages correlate effectively with enchancment or regression. They won’t assure a great or dangerous staff, however they will inform us so much. And in 2025, they inform us so much in regards to the state of school soccer.

The Clemson Tigers are the nation’s clear favourite in returning manufacturing at 81%. Within the state of Florida, the USF Bulls are first on the listing at 14th with a 67% returning manufacturing mark. Florida is 18th with 66%, FSU is forty seventh at 61%.

The Miami Hurricanes are seventy fifth at 55%, FIU is 102nd with 45%, UCF is 106th with 45%, and FAU is available in useless final in FL with 42% returning manufacturing at 112th in FBS.

SP+ Projections

The SP+ projections within the early pre-season are primarily based on three knowledge factors:

1. Returning manufacturing (see above). RP accounts for 66% of the projection.

2. Current recruiting. This covers the previous ‘few’ years of recruiting and accounts for 14% of the projection.

3. Current historical past. Current historical past accounts for the previous three seasons of outcomes (it was 5 within the early portal period) and 20% of the projection.

Photograph by Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire through Getty Photographs

Invoice will replace once more in Might and yet another time in August previous to the beginning of the 2025 season permitting transfers to settle and depth charts to happen.

Miami leads the state of Florida in SP+ touchdown at 14th in FBS. The Hurricanes are 1st in offense, forty ninth in protection, and nineteenth in kicking. That’s daring knowledge after the lack of QB Cam Ward, RB Damien Martinez, WR Xavier Restrepo, and PK Andres Borregales.

The Florida Gators are ranked seventeenth in SP+ and are the 2nd highest ranked staff within the state of Florida. After UF and Miami there’s an enormous drop off in SP+ till 51st the place the FSU Seminoles have fallen on onerous occasions. If Mike Norvell’s squad stays in a backside of the P4 placement at season’s finish you may count on a brand new coach of the ‘Noles in ‘26.

UCF is projected because the 56th finest staff in FBS, with their rival the USF Bulls at 81st, FAU at 108th, and FIU at 119th.

The Wrap

Photograph by James Gilbert/Getty Photographs

Clearly it’s too early to inform who will fall the place by January of 2026. A yr in the past nobody anticipated that drastic fall off from FSU, or the strong season the Gators put up. USF upset and Gus Malzahn left UCF for an OC function at FSU.

The Hurricanes return head coach Mario Cristobal and hope a sequence of transfers on protection with a brand new DC, and new QB Carson Beck, will present the identical spark that Ward gave Miami in ‘24.