Summer season Scheming ‘25: Florida Gators

The Florida Gators completed the 2024 season on a 4 recreation heater that included wins over ranked groups in LSU and Ole Miss in addition to a rivalry week victory over Florida State.

The Gators wrapped up the yr with a file of 8-5 and a win within the Gasparilla Bowl. Over three seasons in Gainesville, FL, Billy Napier has a file of 19-19 and an SEC file of 10-14. Florida had the composite seventh finest class in FBS, which is sweet for 4th within the SEC. The category was led by WR Vernell Brown III who must make an instantaneous impression in Gainesville in ‘25.

The Gators 2025 schedule is one other Assassin’s Row with seven ranked opponents (4 on the street) and the annual showdown towards FSU. Florida’s Preseason General SP+ is 14th in FBS whereas their ST’s are eighth.

The Lean ‘Canes Enterprise Mannequin

Downside: A yr in the past the Gators wanted the soundness of a quarterback. Graham Mertz was a stable transitional champion quarterback till DJ Lagway was prepared. However that meant getting blown out by Miami and beat up by Texas A&M.

Resolution: DJ Lagway is the QB. The protection appears repaired after voting Austin Armstrong off the island and changing him with a half dozen “co-DC’s.” Now it’s time for the offense to have a star participant once more.

Distinctive Worth Proposition: Florida has gained a Nationwide Championship below two totally different head coaches three totally different instances. They’ve additionally produced three Heisman Trophy winners (all quarterbacks) and play in The Swamp. Might Lagway turn into their 4th Heisman QB?

Key Metric: Lagway’s QBR goes to be the KPI I’d search for from UF. If he’s a star the Gators would possibly climb to 10 wins. If he’s simply good, they’re a 7-8 win staff once more.

Aggressive Benefit: I’ll say one factor the Gators have actually cornered the market on is constructing a staff of highschool recruits. They’ve portal dabbled to fill holes however they’re actually a program, not a staff. We’ll see if that stability bumps them from eight wins to 10 in ‘25.

The Achievers

The Excessive Achievers don’t sometimes get blown out 4 instances in a season. In the event you’re going to lose, lose in a detailed recreation for the CFB Playoff committee voters to see some promise in you.

The Low Achievers lose their high gamers to the switch portal. Florida has saved most of who they really need from coming into the portal. Not a ton of big losses that means for the Gators outdoors of 1 or two over the previous three years.

The Offense

The preseason SP+ for UF on offense is sixteenth in all of FBS. That places UF within the working for a reasonably good season on offense in a stacked convention just like the SEC.

Florida returns the QB, Lagway, who averaged 10 yards per go try as a freshman. He threw just a few too many INT’s (9), however he’s obtained extra growth for his bust in comparison with Mertz. RB Jordan Baugh returns after averaging over 5 yards per carry with seven TD’s final season.

The Gators went after a WR in J. Michael Sturdivant who averaged 14.2 yards per catch a yr in the past. UF additionally added a backup QB in Harrison Bailey.

The Movie: Florida 31 at Florida State 11

Florida allowed FSU to hit 50% on cash downs (third and 4th) however recovered 5 fumbles on eight compelled towards the hapless ‘Noles. UF was referred to as for seven penalties whereas FSU went unflagged within the rivalry recreation.

Above– This has a variety of what I prefer to see in an idea. Movement for messing up the protection’s rotation and OODA Loop, an RPO tag with a post-snap learn, and break up zone because the idea.

Above– Six within the field and leverage looks like a pull and throw learn to me. Undecided what the QB noticed right here possibly he thought no3 may cowl the bottom in time? CB was too pressed up? Undecided.

Above– I really like break up zone. The FSU comprise man exhibits his chest and the Florida TE pops him. UF’s TE retains his head inside, which cuts off the defender from making a play right here.

Above– Miami goes to need to sort out higher in ‘25. You may see the FSU defender come throughout the RB’s face, over working the play. Then he drops to a knee and it’s over for him.

The Protection

The defensive preseason SP+ for the Gators is twenty first within the nation. Florida was an abysmal 69th in Napier’s first season in Gainesville.

DL Tyreak Sapp returns to the Gators after a 13 TFL and seven sack season in ‘24. George Gumbs Jr. additionally returns after logging eight TFL’s and 5 sacks final yr. Jordan Castell returns on the again finish after 9 PBU’s a yr in the past.

UF solely went after a pair of defenders within the switch portal this low season. They added a starter high quality participant in Michael Caraway Jr. (DB) and a reserve in hybrid participant Kofi Asare.

Above– Sapp and Markel Bell can have a heck of a recreation in entrance of one another if that’s how Florida needs to play it. I’m penciling Bell in because the LT for the UF recreation. Proper now FSU may chip the DE with the off line TE however they select to not.

Above– The LT’s proper leg is a little bit broad and the DE has his fingers inside and in management. The LT actually needs that proper leg met on the DE’s crotch which might remove the skin rush whereas not giving up the within an excessive amount of.

Above– The DE commits broad and the LT is left lunging after him. The QB must really feel this and step up into the pocket in order that’s on him too. When the LT opened up that broad QB’s can’t drift again, they need to step up into the pocket to chop the rusher off.

Above– A strip sack for UF in a blowout over FSU. At all times whack on the QB’s forearm on his passing hand.

2025 Prediction

Picture by James Gilbert/Getty Pictures for ONIT

The Canyonero Keys to Victory for the ‘Canes this season over UF is to out gun the Gator. DJ Lagway is getting a ton of hype and Florida returns most of their two deep. Napier went with constructing via the highschool ranks over the switch portal and whereas it’s been a rocky street thus far he is perhaps on to one thing enormous in ‘25.

So Miami goes to need to sling the ball to beat Florida and put up factors. The UF offense and protection have crawled from pathetic to a respective top-25 in SP+ in each classes.

Manner too early prediction: Miami by 3. UF will end 9-4 and are available out on the opposite finish of one other brutal schedule with a profitable file. Nevertheless, I believe Miami will get the Gator at house at Laborious Rock in entrance of a loud house crowd.

With the SP+’s 2nd ranked energy of schedule, Napier’s job is greater than protected after one other 8-win season, however I nonetheless assume they will get to 9 earlier than a bowl.