Summer season Scheming ‘25: Louisville Cardinals

The Louisville Cardinals are coming off of one other successful season the place they completed 9-4 (5-3 within the ACC) and a win within the Solar Bowl. In two seasons beneath Jeff Brohm, the Cardinals are 19-8 together with 12-4 within the ACC. Each seasons have ended with a bowl journey for the Playing cards.

Brohm is a real portal princess and it reveals of their prep recruiting. From the highschool signing day, Louisville is sixteenth within the ACC per 247 which is 58th in FBS. Edge rusher CJ Could was the Playing cards high prospect within the ‘25 class. UofL had the fifth greatest switch class within the ACC and hauled in 30 commits.

The Playing cards schedule is kind of favorable early on to get 30 transfers on the identical web page this season. Louisville ought to begin 3-0 earlier than heading to Pitt for his or her first ACC sport. After Pitt and UVA, the Playing cards get an off week earlier than a street journey to Miami.

The ultimate three video games of the common season are the actually laborious half. L’ville will host Clemson earlier than a street journey to SMU after which their rivalry sport in opposition to Kentucky at house.

The Playing cards Preseason Total SP+ is twenty fourth in FBS whereas their ST’s are 97th.

The Lean ‘Canes Enterprise Mannequin

Drawback: Choking away a sport to an unranked opponent is a serious downside for Brohm over the previous two years. It’s been Pitt and Stanford which have knocked off the Playing cards in back-to-back campaigns.

Resolution: I don’t suppose they’ve solved the issue, as a result of there’s no consistency to the roster. ~20 new faces on the 2 deep each low season. That “oops” sport might be at Virginia Tech Nov. 1st.

Distinctive Worth Proposition: Head coaches usually discover success at Louisville. John L. Smith, Bobby Petrino (spherical one), Charlie Sturdy and Brohm have all hit double-digit win seasons at UofL. The one true flop since Smith’s tenure has been Steve Kragthorpe. The Playing cards even have a Heisman Trophy winner in that point interval in QB Lamar Jackson.

Photograph by Michael Reaves/Getty Pictures

Key Metric: SP+ protection. The Playing cards must have a bit of extra fairness between their top-15 offense and their protection. If the defensive SP+ can drop from the 40’s to the 20’s the Playing cards are a 10-win ball membership in ‘25.

Aggressive Benefit: The QB growth and sport planning of Jeff Brohm. Brohm’s mind has really given the Cardinals a aggressive benefit.

The Achievers

The Excessive Achievers within the ACC are Clemson, Miami and SMU. What offers Louisville one thing totally different when in comparison with these three is that they’re extra like SMU than Miami and Clemson as they’re coached by an offensive minded coach as a substitute of a CEO kind.

The Low Achievers within the ACC- Stanford, Wake Forest and UVA are boring groups that usually play unhealthy protection. Louisville performs common P4 protection and are removed from boring.

The Offense

The preseason SP+ for UofL on offense is twelfth in all of FBS. Louisville will as soon as once more depend on a switch portal QB to push them to a successful report. This time it’s Miller Moss the switch QB from USC. Can Brohm work magic with a 3rd straight ‘bust’ behind middle?

Final season the Playing cards scored 36.5 PPG (ninth in FBS) with Tyler Shough at QB. Brohm resurrected Shough’s profession and the journeyman passer was chosen within the 2nd spherical of the 2025 NFL Draft.

The Playing cards do return RB Isaac Brown and WR Chris Bell from a 12 months in the past. Brown rushed for 7.1 yards per carry and 11 TD’s whereas Bell averaged 17.1 yards per catch and 4 TD’s.

They’ll miss Ja’Corey Brooks (Washington Commanders) however have tried to exchange him with two-time switch WR Dacari Collins.

The Movie: SMU 34 vs. Louisville 27

This was an excellent matchup outdoors of one Louisville turnover (SMU had zero TO’s) and an edge to SMU on third and 4th down. The Mustangs completed 5-of-11 on cash downs whereas the Playing cards had been 6-of-16.

The Playing cards offense was explosive on the bottom with Brown speeding for 11.7 yards per carry however held with out a TD. Brooks averaged 40 yards per catch which was a really Lance Guidry defensive factor to permit as nicely.

Above– The Playing cards ran swap in opposition to SMU for an enormous acquire, and the Stangs had poor communication and execution on the back-end, one thing Miami followers knew too nicely beneath Guidry.

What the diagram above is attempting to say is that the Y has a three method go on his idea. If there’s 1-high security in the midst of the sector (closed) the Y will carry himself up the hashes. If there’s a 2-high security look or center of the sector open the Y will carry up the purpose put up.

If the MOFC (center of the sector is closed) AND it’s man protection, the Y can break off right into a dig idea. The W on this idea usually replaces the Y up the numbers however can drop out if the defender offers him an enormous cushion.

Above– SMU is attempting to play a sport right here with their LB/S guys nevertheless it backfires.

Above– You will have one defender staying shallow, one going deep, and the center of the sector is clogged with the shallow crosser and the WR operating contained in the hashes towards the purpose put up. This attracts three defenders over two receivers.

Above– You may see assist is method too far-off and the deep CB obtained beat on the swap.

The Protection

The defensive preseason SP+ for the Cardinals is forty fifth within the nation after permitting 24.1 PPG a 12 months in the past (56th in FBS). Ron English returns because the Playing cards DC for the ‘25 season. The Playing cards protection will miss DL Ashton Gillotte who went within the third spherical to the KC Chiefs.

The protection returns LB’s Stanquan Clark and TJ Quinn in addition to STAR Antonio Watts. That’s 19 TFL’s and seven PBU’s between the trio.

Switch DB Jabari Mack had 11 PBU’s a 12 months in the past for Jacksonville State. Switch security JoJo Evans is on his 4th college as a collegiate fotballer however did log seven PBU’s and two INT’s final season.

The Movie

SMU QB Kevin Jennings was a real twin menace however the Playing cards received’t have to fret about that with Carson Beck.

The pink zone fade… I’m not an enormous fan of the idea UNLESS it’s on 1st down. Rhett Lashlee dials it up right here and SMU scores with former Miami WR Keyshawn Smith making the catch. Who would be the bounce ball man for Miami in ‘25 with Isaiah Horton in Tuscaloosa?

Above– SMU has the run sport going with Jennings and barely with Brashard Smith (4 yards per stick with it the day). This attracts any security assist into the field, together with the TE shifting into the ‘nested’ place contained in the OT.

Above– The play-action freezes any probability at assist for the L’ville CB. Now it’s a 1-on-1 ball for SMU’s offense.

Above– As an alternative of pushing to the again pylon like a typical fade, SMU makes use of a again shoulder drop out. Smith does a ‘throw by’ on the CB forcing him deep after which breaks off outdoors. If this ball is ‘missed’ it ought to be outdoors and out of bounds, not inside and picked or deep and shoved out or picked.

Miami has a half dozen slot receivers however have they got a real huge physique kind that may execute this look within the pink zone?

2025 Prediction

Photograph by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Pictures

The Canyonero Keys to Victory for the ‘Canes this season over Louisville is for Mario Cristobal and new Miami DC Corey Hetherman to show they will match wits with Jeff and Brian Brohm. The 2 showdowns for Miami in opposition to Brohm have been blockbuster video games. That is an skilled play caller in Brohm matched up in opposition to a second 12 months P4 DC in Hetherman.

Manner too early prediction: Miami by 1. Louisville will end 9-3 however not with a win over the ‘Canes. Louisville has the forty third hardest schedule per SP+ which solely taking part in 3-4 powerful opponents will assist them get to 9 wins.