Summer time Scheming ‘25: Florida State Seminoles

The Florida State Seminoles are coming off a 2-10 season (1-7 within the ACC) that has head coach Mike Norvell on the most well liked of sizzling seats.

At FSU, Norvell has coached three dropping seasons in 5 years on his strategy to a 33-27 document and 20-20 posting within the ACC. FSU has performed in two bowl video games underneath Norvell ending 1-1 in post-season play. FSU had the nineteenth greatest class in FBS, which was good for 2nd within the ACC. The category was led by 340 pound DL Kevin Wynn.

FSU will play Alabama to open the season earlier than three cupcakes and an off week previous to their rivalry showdown with Miami at Doak Campbell Stadium. The ‘Noles have to go to Clemson, NC State and Florida however host Virginia Tech in the midst of that run.

FSU’s Preseason Total SP+ is thirty sixth in FBS whereas their ST’s are thirteenth. If FSU is in the midst of the pack of the P5 I’m undecided if Norvell can maintain his job.

The Lean ‘Canes Enterprise Mannequin

Downside: Continuity. FSU has been a wholesale switch portal staff underneath Norvell and the sticking energy that they had in ‘23 has light to a revolving door of portalers in ‘24 and now once more for ‘25.

Resolution: They didn’t remedy the issue. FSU changed their QB, OC, DC, and could have round 15 transfers within the two-deep this season.

Distinctive Worth Proposition: FSU has received a nationwide championship semi-recently, however in actuality something within the BCS Period is not ‘fashionable soccer.’ FSU does have three nationwide titles underneath two totally different coaches and three Heisman Trophy winners.

Key Metric: Turnover margin per sport. FSU suffered via a -1.6 turnover margin in 2024. That made them the 132nd ranked FBS staff in TOM/Sport.

Aggressive Benefit: I do suppose the FSU protection has expertise on it. Working a 3-3-5 with Jackson Jr. at NT may be nasty they usually have a stable defensive backfield.

The Achievers

The Excessive Achievers within the ACC are Clemson, Miami and SMU. Clemson has averted the portal just like the plague whereas Miami and SMU have used it rather more fluidly. Clemson and Miami try to improve at DC this season and so is FSU.

The Low Achievers within the ACC lose expertise to the portal and coaches to higher jobs. One factor FSU doesn’t share with that’s dropping their AC’s to one thing higher, they’ve simply been fired and have taken lesser gigs.

The Offense

The preseason SP+ for FSU on offense is 58th in all of FBS. FSU’s offense has virtually no returning gamers nor firepower from the ‘24 season the place they scored solely 15.4 factors per sport (131st in FBS).

Roydell Williams has expertise however the former Alabama switch was injured and unproductive a 12 months in the past.

FSU picked up 4 new OL for the 2 deep, WR Duce Robinson and QB Thomas Castellanos to attempt to get again to at the very least the ‘Noles 2022 type. Robinson averaged over 17 yards per catch with 5 TD’s in ‘24.

Castellanos is a curious determination at QB. He sort of stop on Boston Faculty after throwing 18 TD’s with 5 INT’s. Castellanos is an undersized however explosive runner who takes too many sacks. I feel that is an improve over ‘24 starter DJ Uiagalelei.

The Movie: FSU 14 vs. Cal 9

FSU pulled off an upset with their 14-9 win over the Cal Golden Bears. The distinction maker was FSU holding Cal to 5 area purpose makes an attempt, and Cal solely making three. The FSU offense was 8-of-19 on cash downs and solely turned the soccer over as soon as.

Above– Norvell likes his counter trey stuff and right here he’s pulling his guard and sort out towards a 6-man field.

Above– The QB is studying the EMOL (finish man on line). If he crashes down the Q will pull and run (subsequent image has the run pretend motion).

Above– I like an ideal kick out block from a guard on a counter run.

Above– What helps a pleasant run idea? Downfield blocking from the extensive receivers.

The Protection

The defensive preseason SP+ for the ‘Noles is twenty eighth within the nation after permitting 28.0 PPG a 12 months in the past (87th in FBS). FSU returns Darrell Jackson Jr (3.5 TFL’s) and a ton of backups from the ‘24 season.

The ‘Noles hit the portal on protection, too. On the DL they introduced in James Williams (5 sacks) and unproven expertise in DL Deante McCray and linebackers Stefon Thompson and Elijah Herring.

The Movie: FSU 3 at ND 52.

Notre Dame thumped FSU in 2024 whereas the Combating Irish held the ‘Noles to 4-of-19 on cash downs (third and 4th) whereas turning the ball over two instances. The FSU protection allowed 201 speeding yards and 4 TD’s on the bottom to ND.

Above– ND traces up in a 2×2 set within the pink zone and runs a move idea referred to as ‘slot fade.’ The exterior WR runs a brief hitch whereas the inside receiver works up and out over the numbers to exchange the no1 receiver.

Above– Because the slot beats his man to the again pylon, the CB has to decide to the surface WR. The FS is unable to get excessive to assist in time. That’s why you throw this to the surface shoulder so it’s onerous for the FS to get there.

Above– Flawed shoulder however good and deep excessive of the slot and too far for the FS to assist.

2025 Prediction

Picture by Don Juan Moore/Getty Pictures

The Canyonero Keys to Victory for the ‘Canes this season over FSU is to keep away from self-implosion. FSU is a .500 ball membership at greatest even after changing each coordinators and their quarterback.

Means too early prediction: Miami by 14. FSU will end 5-7 and Mike Norvell shall be out as the top coach of the ‘Noles. With the SP+’s thirtieth ranked energy of schedule there’s no excuse to not end above .500 in a down ACC.